Week 7 Recap: Digging the Hole Deeper

Week 7. 8th to 14th February.

It started badly.

If I’m honest, I think I came into the week trying to play catch up after the turbulence the week before. That mindset alone is usually a warning sign. After a couple of early Monday morning losses took me to -2R for the day before the afternoon, I didn’t accept it. I tried to turn it around in the afternoon session

Classic mistake.

Instead of protecting capital, I dug the hole deeper.

On the R metrics the damage was clear. The dollar screenshot makes it feel even worse, but the story is the same in both. This wasn’t a market problem. It was a discipline problem.

 

 

What Went Wrong

The biggest issue was selection. I drifted away from A+ zones and started taking trades that were “technically valid” but not truly aligned with my core model.

My flip positioning  continue to give mixed results. Especially on the 1-minute timeframe. The problem is obvious when I zoom out. What looks like structure on the lower timeframe often disappears on the 2–5 minute chart.

If it looks like one continuous leg down on the higher timeframe, that “flip” I’ve chosen as my critical entry point is probably weak. I’ve been placing trades into developing structure instead of waiting for it to form properly. The result? Stops get hit as the higher timeframe move continues exactly as it should, barely recognising my flip was there

I started taking trades that were “technically valid” but not truly aligned with my core model.

Another trend I’ve noticed is slight oversizing on expensive instruments like DAX and Silver. Subconsciously I’m reaching for slightly bigger wins. That breaks the consistency of 1 percent risk per trade and adds unnecessary pressure.

I also need to review my trailing stop logic. I’ve been moving stops to what I think are structural lows, only to realise later that they aren’t real structure when viewed on a slightly higher timeframe. Same principe mistake as intentioned above on flips placement. That could explain why I’m getting stopped out before the move continues back in my desired direction. Sometimes hitting final TP to my frustration

I’ve also considered  the possibility of “mini zones” on very low timeframes, 15 or 30 seconds, that remain unmitigated. Price may simply be returning to claim those zones before continuing. Lesson = If I’m going to trail, it has to respect the timeframe that justified the trade in the first place.

Variance exists in the market. It shouldn’t exist in your discipline.

The Plan

Some clear adjustments going into next week:

• Reduce trades. Maximum 5 per day. I have a trade planner. Now I need to stick to it.
• Focus on true A+ zone selection.
• Keep risk consistent at 1 percent. No oversizing on volatile or expensive instruments. If I’m going to resize, let it be down, not up.
• Validate structure on at least one timeframe higher before committing.
• Reassess trailing stop placement relative to the timeframe of entry.

It’s hard to reconcile hard weeks like this with some recent + 13R weeks. But that’s trading. Variance exists in the market. It shouldn’t exist in your discipline.

The difference between a temporary drawdown and a larger problem is how quickly you diagnose and correct.

On Monday in the US the markets are closed due to public holiday. Liquidity will likely be slower across the board. That’s fine. It’s a good opportunity to spend some quality time reviewing every loss from this week properly and build a structured plan for Tuesday onwards.

This week was painful. But it was clear.

And clear mistakes are fixable.

Trade well. Stay ordinary.